Monday, March 14, 2011

The Field of 68

Here are my picks for this year's NCAA Tournament, with judicious comments included:

EAST REGIONAL:

OPENING ROUND
:
Texas San-Antonio over Alabama State
Clemson over UAB

SECOND (but it's really the first) ROUND:
(12) Clemson over (5) West Virginia
(4) Kentucky over (13) Princeton
(8) George Mason over (9) Villanova
(1) Ohio State over (16) Texas-San Antonio
(2) North Carolina over (15) Long Island
(6) Xavier over (11) Marquette
(7) Washington over (10) Georgia
(3) Syracuse over (14) Indiana State

THIRD (but it's really the second) ROUND:
Clemson over Kentucky
Ohio State over George Mason
North Carolina over Xavier
Syracuse over Washington

REGIONAL SEMIFINALS:
Ohio State over Clemson
Syracuse over North Carolina

REGIONAL FINAL:
Ohio State over Syracuse

I see no obvious reason to pick against the Buckeyes, especially once young but raw Kentucky blows up against an underrated Clemson team.

SOUTHEAST REGIONAL:

OPENING ROUND:
North Carolina-Asheville over Arkansas-Little Rock

SECOND ROUND:
(9) Old Dominion over (8) Butler
(1) Pittsburgh over (16) North Carolina-Asheville
(10) Michigan State over (7) UCLA
(11) Gonzaga over (6) St. John's
(2) Florida over (15) California-Santa Barbara
(3) Brigham Young over (14) Wofford
(13) Belmont over (4) Wisconsin
(12) Utah State over (5) Kansas State

THIRD ROUND:
Pittsburgh over Old Dominion
Michigan State over Florida
Gonzaga over BYU
Utah State over Belmont

REGIONAL SEMIS:
Pittsburgh over Utah State
Michigan State over Gonzaga

REGIONAL FINAL:
Pittsburgh over Michigan State

The scab gets ripped right off this weak region in the very first (sorry, second) round. A lot of other folks are picking Belmont and Utah State, but I'm expecting Michigan State to make its patented charge as well. Pitt was very fortunate to get seeded #1 here and will get to its first official Final Four (1941, with its eight-team field, doesn't count).

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL:

OPENING ROUND:
Virginia Commonwealth over Southern California

SECOND ROUND:
(4) Louisville over (13) Morehead State
(12) Richmond over (5) Vanderbilt
(2) Notre Dame over (15) Akron
(10) Florida State over (7) Texas A&M
(11) VCU over (6) Georgetown
(1) Kansas over (16) Boston University
(3) Purdue over (14) St. Peter's
(8) Nevada-Las Vegas over (9) Illinois

THIRD ROUND:
Louisville over Richmond
Notre Dame over Florida State
Purdue over VCU
Kansas over UNLV

REGIONAL SEMIS:
Purdue over Notre Dame
Kansas over Louisville

REGIONAL FINAL:
Purdue over Kansas

Notre Dame has overachieved massively this year, but I think that two wins is about their limit, especially since they'll be facing Purdue in the Sweet 16. Purdue has a chip on its shoulder from ND refusing to play it for many years, plus Purdue is simply the better team. No one else seems to like Purdue as a Final Four possibility, but the Boilermakers are long overdue for some good Tournament fortune. Plus, Kansas usually finds a way to mess up a good thing, unless it's playing a team that can't shoot free throws AND uses ineligible players (hi, Memphis!).

WEST REGIONAL:

SECOND (only here, it's the first) ROUND:
(7) Temple over (10) Penn State
(2) San Diego State over (15) Northern Colorado
(3) Connecticut over (14) Bucknell
(6) Cincinnati over (11) Missouri
(4) Texas over (13) Oakland
(5) Arizona over (12) Memphis
(1) Duke over (16) Hampton
(8) Michigan over (9) Tennessee

THIRD (only here, it's the second) ROUND:
San Diego State over Temple
Cincinnati over Connecticut
Arizona over Texas
Duke over Michigan

REGIONAL SEMIS:
San Diego State over Cincinnati
Arizona over Duke

REGIONAL FINAL:
San Diego State over Arizona

It may seem strange to pick a team that is 0-6 all-time in the NCAAs, but IF SDSU can get out of the first weekend, then I think that the Aztecs have a definite advantage playing in Anaheim in the Regional and will advance to Houston. Arizona will also benefit from playing close to home in upsetting Duke.

FINAL FOUR:
Ohio State over San Diego State
Pittsburgh over Purdue

NATIONAL FINAL:
Ohio State over Pittsburgh

Actually, I'd prefer that Pittsburgh won, but OSU is better and should triumph.

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